Sunrise 07:15, sunset 19:12, on the ground by 18:12. Times are estimated (NOAA solar position) - AIP table not yet wired in.
Crosswind is the mean across the three models; the last column gives each model separately so a disagreement is visible rather than averaged away. A gust marked (?) came from a run whose gust field is not physically plausible at that wind speed.
| Local | Verdict | Binding | Rwy | Head kt | Cross kt | Gust xw | Base ft | Low cld | Vis km | mm/h | Crosswind by model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | no-go | daylight | 15 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 5.8 | 533 | 77% | 20 | 0.1 | ECMWF 5.4 / GFS 2.5 / ICON-EU 3.4 |
| 07:00 | no-go | daylight | 15 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 8.9 | 493 | 74% | 20 | 0.3 | ECMWF 4.8 / GFS 2.0 / ICON-EU 3.4 |
| 08:00 | poor | precipitation | 15 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 427 | 70% | 20 | 0.3 | ECMWF 4.2 / GFS 1.6 / ICON-EU 3.4 |
| 09:00 | poor | precipitation | 15 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 507 | 67% | 20 | 0.3 | ECMWF 4.1 / GFS 0.7 / ICON-EU 3.2 |
| 10:00 | marginal | gust | 15 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 707 | 67% | 23 | 0.1 | ECMWF 4.4 / GFS 1.5 / ICON-EU 2.5 |
| 11:00 | marginal | precipitation | 15 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 973 | 37% | 25 | 0.1 | ECMWF 4.9 / GFS 1.5 / ICON-EU 1.9 |
| 12:00 | marginal | ceiling | 15 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 1187 | 39% | 27 | 0.1 | ECMWF 5.4 / GFS 1.0 / ICON-EU 1.1 |
| 13:00 | marginal | ceiling | 15 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 5.1 | 1373 | 50% | 27 | 0.1 | ECMWF 5.7 / GFS 1.3 / ICON-EU 0.6 |
| 14:00 | marginal | ceiling | 15 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 1587 | 46% | 27 | 0.1 | ECMWF 5.8 / GFS 2.0 / ICON-EU 0.0 |
| 15:00 | marginal | ceiling | 15 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 1587 | 58% | 27 | 0.1 | ECMWF 5.6 / GFS 1.8 / ICON-EU 0.2 |
| 16:00 | marginal | ceiling | 15 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 1600 | 62% | 27 | 0.0 | ECMWF 4.7 / GFS 0.9 / ICON-EU 0.5 |
| 17:00 | marginal | daylight | 15 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 1653 | 57% | 27 | 0.0 | ECMWF 3.6 / GFS 1.2 / ICON-EU 0.8 |
| 18:00 | no-go | daylight | 15 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 1440 | 54% | 27 | 0.0 | ECMWF 2.9 / GFS 2.9 / ICON-EU 0.8 |
| 19:00 | no-go | daylight | 15 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 1187 | 53% | 24 | 0 | ECMWF 3.3 / GFS 2.4 / ICON-EU 0.5 |
| 20:00 | no-go | daylight | 15 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 907 | 58% | 22 | 0 | ECMWF 4.4 / GFS 1.6 / ICON-EU 0.2 |
| 21:00 | no-go | daylight | 15 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 747 | 69% | 20 | 0 | ECMWF 5.0 / GFS 1.3 / ICON-EU 0.2 |
The ceiling figure is an Espy estimate from the model temperature and dew point, read beside the low-cloud coverage. It is not a ceiling and it is not measured: no observation of the cloud base over EVAD exists anywhere. Treat 2000 ft as the figure to aim for and leave the final look to the day itself.