Sunrise 07:13, sunset 19:15, on the ground by 18:15. Times are estimated (NOAA solar position) - AIP table not yet wired in.
Crosswind is the mean across the three models; the last column gives each model separately so a disagreement is visible rather than averaged away. A gust marked (?) came from a run whose gust field is not physically plausible at that wind speed.
| Local | Verdict | Binding | Rwy | Head kt | Cross kt | Gust xw | Base ft | Low cld | Vis km | mm/h | Crosswind by model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | no-go | daylight | 15 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 11.4 | 453 | 56% | 12 | 0.6 | ECMWF 6.9 / GFS 6.6 / ICON-EU 2.1 |
| 07:00 | no-go | daylight | 15 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 11.0 | 520 | 76% | 11 | 0.9 | ECMWF 6.9 / GFS 6.2 / ICON-EU 2.9 |
| 08:00 | no-go | gust | 15 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 10.8 | 667 | 82% | 20 | 0.6 | ECMWF 7.1 / GFS 5.8 / ICON-EU 3.5 |
| 09:00 | no-go | gust | 15 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 11.7 | 773 | 86% | 22 | 0.5 | ECMWF 7.3 / GFS 7.0 / ICON-EU 4.5 |
| 10:00 | no-go | gust | 15 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 12.0 | 800 | 57% | 23 | 0.8 | ECMWF 7.4 / GFS 8.1 / ICON-EU 5.7 |
| 11:00 | no-go | gust | 15 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 13.0 | 773 | 72% | 24 | 0.9 | ECMWF 7.8 / GFS 9.5 / ICON-EU 6.9 |
| 12:00 | poor | crosswind | 15 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 12.5 | 827 | 73% | 24 | 0.9 | ECMWF 8.0 / GFS 8.8 / ICON-EU 7.8 |
| 13:00 | poor | crosswind | 15 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 840 | 77% | 18 | 0.6 | ECMWF 8.2 / GFS 8.5 / ICON-EU 8.1 |
| 14:00 | poor | crosswind | 15 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 867 | 94% | 19 | 0.6 | ECMWF 8.7 / GFS 6.9 / ICON-EU 8.2 |
| 15:00 | poor | crosswind | 15 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 827 | 97% | 25 | 0.5 | ECMWF 9.0 / GFS 5.6 / ICON-EU 8.1 |
| 16:00 | poor | crosswind | 15 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 867 | 96% | 22 | 0.9 | ECMWF 9.2 / GFS 4.4 / ICON-EU 8.4 |
| 17:00 | no-go | ceiling | 15 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 707 | 90% | 20 | 0.9 | ECMWF 9.4 / GFS 3.5 / ICON-EU 8.9 |
| 18:00 | no-go | daylight | 15 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 720 | 90% | 18 | 0.9 | ECMWF 9.3 / GFS 3.3 / ICON-EU 8.9 |
| 19:00 | no-go | daylight | 15 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 667 | 82% | 20 | 0.8 | ECMWF 9.2 / GFS 3.2 / ICON-EU 8.7 |
| 20:00 | no-go | daylight | 15 | 3.7 | 6.6 | — (?) | 667 | 82% | 21 | 0.8 | ECMWF 9.0 / GFS 2.5 / ICON-EU 8.4 |
| 21:00 | no-go | daylight | 33 | 3.4 | 6.3 | — (?) | 653 | 64% | 23 | 0.8 | ECMWF 8.6 / GFS 2.7 / ICON-EU 7.7 |
The ceiling figure is an Espy estimate from the model temperature and dew point, read beside the low-cloud coverage. It is not a ceiling and it is not measured: no observation of the cloud base over EVAD exists anywhere. Treat 2000 ft as the figure to aim for and leave the final look to the day itself.